SOCIAL: Fwd: The Power of the Internet - The Logic of a Sitcom

[Randall Isaac]

    Unfortunately, comments have been disabled for this video.  The 
presenter asked for the flaw in his argument,  so here it is:  the 
problem is that he leaves out all the probability calculations and 
opportunity costs for the choices, and without them, the argument is 
meaningless. 

    Allow me to illustrate:  let's say I use his 4-box method to analyse 
a call for a national emergency plan to protect our planet from invaders 
from the Andromeda Galaxy.  I demand that tinfoil hats be distributed to 
all 6 billion humans plus 10,000,000 handheld laser disintigrator 
weapons be developed in a giant Manhatten project to give to our armies 
to defend us. 

    I will use the following argument: either we are invaded by spacemen 
or we are not.  If we do spend $500 billion on weapons and there is no 
invasion then all we've done is waste the money (that could have been 
spent on other things like global warming); but if we don't spend the 
money and we are invaded, the result is world domination by the 
Andromedens and all of us eventually rounded up and eaten with some fava 
beans and a nice Chianti. Nothing less than the survival of mankind is 
at stake; therefore it's completely obvious that we should spend the 
$500 billion and start wearing our tinfoil hats immediately.

Pass this along to all of your friends.

Randall

Brooke Kuhn wrote:
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI
>  
> This is definitely worth watching. 
> Keep it moving too.
>
>
>
> -- 
> Brooke Kuhn, MS, CHES
> 143 San Carlos St.
> San Francisco, CA 94110
> 415.252.9047
> BrKuhn at post.harvard.edu <mailto:BrKuhn at post.harvard.edu>
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