SOCIAL: Fwd: The Power of the Internet - The Logic of a Sitcom

[Randall Isaac]

Nothing like a midnight debate  :-)

    My example is of course intended to be silly to illustrate the point 
that reducing complex choices to 4 boxes oversimplifies the situation to 
the point that you can argue for any course of action you want. 

    While there is finally little dispute that global warming is 
occurring, there are many questions about how far, how fast, what can be 
accomplished with how much money, and where can the effort do the most 
good.  For example, some economists argue that money spent on reducing 
CO2 would be better spent on mitigating it's effects; is it worth 
spending the money for a 25% CO2 reduction, a 50% reduction, what?  
Let's say the earth is going to warm 5 degrees over the next century, 
but for $500 billion we can reduce it to 4 degrees.  Maybe the effect on 
the earth between those two temperatures is so small we should spend the 
money on better irrigation, relocating people, etc instead.

    In order to represent all these choices the guy should have a board 
with 16 or 32 squares.  But remember, his whole goal was to simplify the 
choices so much that everyone would agree on one course of action.  If 
he expands the boxes to show the real probabilities and possibilities, 
there goes the consensus.  This isn't a discussion about global warming, 
this is a discussion about whether this guy's 4-box whiteboard talk is 
going to end the debate.  And it's not.

Randall


adrian cotter wrote:
> Isn't that a straw man attack, Randall?
>
> His initial premise is that there is certain level of reasonableness  
> to the proposition that global warming exists.
>
> There is very little reasonableness to the idea that we might be  
> subjected to an invasion from ETs. No debates at the UN (so far as I  
> know), no IPAI (international panel on alien invasion) Reports, no  
> questions in presidential debates on the subject. As sad as it is for  
> me to say, there is no hard evidence of any aliens out there at all,  
> let alone ones who like us with a nice Chianti.
>
> Whereas, in terms of global warming, there is at least evidence that  
> our climate does indeed change, and can have drastic consequences for  
> the planet and people even.
>
> However, I would be willing to help you do a response video :-)
> -- he could strengthen his argument a little I think. Think of all  
> the fun we could have with tinfoil hats.
>
> Adrian
>
> On Dec 21, 2007, at 12:02 AM, Randall Isaac wrote:
>
>   
>>     Unfortunately, comments have been disabled for this video.  The
>> presenter asked for the flaw in his argument,  so here it is:  the
>> problem is that he leaves out all the probability calculations and
>> opportunity costs for the choices, and without them, the argument is
>> meaningless.
>>
>>     Allow me to illustrate:  let's say I use his 4-box method to  
>> analyse
>> a call for a national emergency plan to protect our planet from  
>> invaders
>> from the Andromeda Galaxy.  I demand that tinfoil hats be  
>> distributed to
>> all 6 billion humans plus 10,000,000 handheld laser disintigrator
>> weapons be developed in a giant Manhatten project to give to our  
>> armies
>> to defend us.
>>
>>     I will use the following argument: either we are invaded by  
>> spacemen
>> or we are not.  If we do spend $500 billion on weapons and there is no
>> invasion then all we've done is waste the money (that could have been
>> spent on other things like global warming); but if we don't spend the
>> money and we are invaded, the result is world domination by the
>> Andromedens and all of us eventually rounded up and eaten with some  
>> fava
>> beans and a nice Chianti. Nothing less than the survival of mankind is
>> at stake; therefore it's completely obvious that we should spend the
>> $500 billion and start wearing our tinfoil hats immediately.
>>
>> Pass this along to all of your friends.
>>
>> Randall
>>
>> Brooke Kuhn wrote:
>>     
>>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI
>>>
>>> This is definitely worth watching.
>>> Keep it moving too.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> -- 
>>> Brooke Kuhn, MS, CHES
>>> 143 San Carlos St.
>>> San Francisco, CA 94110
>>> 415.252.9047
>>> BrKuhn at post.harvard.edu <mailto:BrKuhn at post.harvard.edu>
>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------- 
>>> ---
>>>
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