SOCIAL: Prop 11

[Tom Radulovich]

All,

I fail to see how Prop 11 will result in competitive electoral  
districts. I think it is likely to result in the same number of "safe"  
districts for the two parties, but with more safe Republican districts.

This has to do with the composition of the commission. It is composed  
of 12 members, of which four must be Democrats, four Republicans, and  
four decline-to-state or minor-party representatives.

The Democratic and Republican representatives will certainly want to  
create safe districts for members of their own parties, and if they  
get together, they can craft an electoral map that creates the  
greatest possible number of safe partisan districts for both parties.  
Because Prop 11 gives Democrats and Republicans equal representation,  
despite a statewide electorate that tilts in favor of the Democrats  
(32.5% Republican, 43.8% Democrat, 19.5% no party), the electoral  
districts will be more favorable to the Republicans than the current  
ones, but probably no less partisan.

That said, are 'safe' districts bad? Swing districts, with roughly  
equal numbers of Republican and Democratic voters, do exist in  
California, and they tend to elect moderates of either party, who are  
likely to fear a challenge from the other party in their next  
election. In my experience, Democrats from swing districts don't want  
to be seen to be soft on crime, gay-friendly, or too 'liberal'  
generally, and have to raise big political war chests to fight off the  
next partisan challenge; while winning these swing districts may  
increase Democratic majorities (or Republican majorities, as the  
political winds shift the other direction), these Democrats pull the  
party towards the US political center. Considering that so many of the  
things I care about – environmental sustainability, social justice,  
civil rights, world-centric morality, etc. – are, sadly, the province  
of only one of the major parties (and only part of the time), and that  
the US political 'center' is quite far to the right of most developed  
countries, I'm not sure a more 'centrist' legislature is such a great  
idea right now.

While Prop 11 promises to make redistricting non-partisan, the makeup  
of its commission institutionalizes partisanship. Beware of anything  
that promises to take the politics out of politics; it's still  
politics, but with new winners and losers. I'm voting no on Prop 11.

Best,

Tom