here's his more recent attempt to address randall's comments. the other video is old, and he did get lots of comments apparently:<br><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mF_anaVcCXg" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mF_anaVcCXg
</a><br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Dec 21, 2007 1:12 AM, Randall Isaac <<a href="mailto:randall@deadletter.com">randall@deadletter.com</a>> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;">
Nothing like a midnight debate :-)<br><br> My example is of course intended to be silly to illustrate the point<br>that reducing complex choices to 4 boxes oversimplifies the situation to<br>the point that you can argue for any course of action you want.
<br><br> While there is finally little dispute that global warming is<br>occurring, there are many questions about how far, how fast, what can be<br>accomplished with how much money, and where can the effort do the most
<br>good. For example, some economists argue that money spent on reducing<br>CO2 would be better spent on mitigating it's effects; is it worth<br>spending the money for a 25% CO2 reduction, a 50% reduction, what?<br>
Let's say the earth is going to warm 5 degrees over the next century,<br>but for $500 billion we can reduce it to 4 degrees. Maybe the effect on<br>the earth between those two temperatures is so small we should spend the
<br>money on better irrigation, relocating people, etc instead.<br><br> In order to represent all these choices the guy should have a board<br>with 16 or 32 squares. But remember, his whole goal was to simplify the<br>
choices so much that everyone would agree on one course of action. If<br>he expands the boxes to show the real probabilities and possibilities,<br>there goes the consensus. This isn't a discussion about global warming,
<br>this is a discussion about whether this guy's 4-box whiteboard talk is<br>going to end the debate. And it's not.<br><font color="#888888"><br>Randall<br></font><div><div></div><div class="Wj3C7c"><br><br>adrian cotter wrote:
<br>> Isn't that a straw man attack, Randall?<br>><br>> His initial premise is that there is certain level of reasonableness<br>> to the proposition that global warming exists.<br>><br>> There is very little reasonableness to the idea that we might be
<br>> subjected to an invasion from ETs. No debates at the UN (so far as I<br>> know), no IPAI (international panel on alien invasion) Reports, no<br>> questions in presidential debates on the subject. As sad as it is for
<br>> me to say, there is no hard evidence of any aliens out there at all,<br>> let alone ones who like us with a nice Chianti.<br>><br>> Whereas, in terms of global warming, there is at least evidence that<br>
> our climate does indeed change, and can have drastic consequences for<br>> the planet and people even.<br>><br>> However, I would be willing to help you do a response video :-)<br>> -- he could strengthen his argument a little I think. Think of all
<br>> the fun we could have with tinfoil hats.<br>><br>> Adrian<br>><br>> On Dec 21, 2007, at 12:02 AM, Randall Isaac wrote:<br>><br>><br>>> Unfortunately, comments have been disabled for this video. The
<br>>> presenter asked for the flaw in his argument, so here it is: the<br>>> problem is that he leaves out all the probability calculations and<br>>> opportunity costs for the choices, and without them, the argument is
<br>>> meaningless.<br>>><br>>> Allow me to illustrate: let's say I use his 4-box method to<br>>> analyse<br>>> a call for a national emergency plan to protect our planet from<br>>> invaders
<br>>> from the Andromeda Galaxy. I demand that tinfoil hats be<br>>> distributed to<br>>> all 6 billion humans plus 10,000,000 handheld laser disintigrator<br>>> weapons be developed in a giant Manhatten project to give to our
<br>>> armies<br>>> to defend us.<br>>><br>>> I will use the following argument: either we are invaded by<br>>> spacemen<br>>> or we are not. If we do spend $500 billion on weapons and there is no
<br>>> invasion then all we've done is waste the money (that could have been<br>>> spent on other things like global warming); but if we don't spend the<br>>> money and we are invaded, the result is world domination by the
<br>>> Andromedens and all of us eventually rounded up and eaten with some<br>>> fava<br>>> beans and a nice Chianti. Nothing less than the survival of mankind is<br>>> at stake; therefore it's completely obvious that we should spend the
<br>>> $500 billion and start wearing our tinfoil hats immediately.<br>>><br>>> Pass this along to all of your friends.<br>>><br>>> Randall<br>>><br>>> Brooke Kuhn wrote:<br>>>
<br>>>> <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI</a><br>>>><br>>>> This is definitely worth watching.<br>>>> Keep it moving too.
<br>>>><br>>>><br>>>><br>>>> --<br>>>> Brooke Kuhn, MS, CHES<br>>>> 143 San Carlos St.<br>>>> San Francisco, CA 94110<br>>>> 415.252.9047<br>>>>
<a href="mailto:BrKuhn@post.harvard.edu">BrKuhn@post.harvard.edu</a> <mailto:<a href="mailto:BrKuhn@post.harvard.edu">BrKuhn@post.harvard.edu</a>><br>>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------
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